The culprit

As we continue motoring east at 6kts, with 8kts of wind now on our starboard quarter (i.e., WSW) I've been trying to understand what has happened to our wind. Wind from the SW in our area is usually associated with a low pressure system, but we've been dealing with a massive high pressure system.

I downloaded the current NOAA surface analysis, as well as the 24hr and 48hr forecasts. There it is. A weak low pressure area sitting off the coast of Portland. It protrudes from the coast and into the high like a pot belly hanging over a belt. The wind follows the curve of the belly and we get a WSW wind. Fortunately it is labeled as "DSIPT" which is NOAA speak for dissipating, though we view it more as disappointing. It is gone on the 48hr forecast which is why the GRIBs forecast that we'll have a weak sailing breeze by about midnight which builds tomorrow and into a very brisk breeze (20-25) by Thursday night as the high is compressed by a low to the west.

Is this beginning to sound like your nightly news weatherman, but without the spiffy graphics, loud sports coat and bad jokes? So be it, we'll be obsessed with the weather until we arrive.

The surface forecasts also show what is behind us and it's a good thing we didn't depart a week later. There is a very deep low pressure system currently about 1,400 miles to the west which is producing gale force winds (35-40kts with 20' seas) where we were located just six days ago, and storm force winds just to the west of that (50kts with 30' seas). We will be happy to be arriving soon.

ETA: Friday morning between 9-noon (remember, it's an estimate)