We've consistently had about 5kts more wind than the forecast. And this evening while the forecast is for 15, we have 20-22. It may not seem like much, but the force of the wind on the sails (and on the seas) rises with the square of the velocity. That means that 22kts of wind is more than twice as much force as 15. It means we need half as much sail area and it means the seas get pushed up with twice as much force, making bigger waves.
Basically, it's just more wind than we need. We'd be more comfortable and moving only slightly slower with 15kts. Yesterday we did 210 miles and today we did 206, but we'd gladly have 190 mile days in return for a smoother ride.
As far as I can figure out, the confused and lumpy seas we're experiencing are the result of three sets water moving in different directions. First there is the prevailing SW swell which is apparently the result of the winds in the Southern Ocean at 40-50 degrees south latitude. Those waves disperse and span out in the South Pacific where there are no land masses to block them. Then there are the waves generated by the SW trade winds, theoretically blowing at 13-15, but in our experience more like 15-25. Then there is the west bound current. The current is mostly a product of the wind, but over a huge area and doesn't follow the path of the local wind. I estimate that we've had .5 - .8 kts of current. So there is water and energy moving in three different directions, SW to NE, SE to NW and E to W, constantly bumping into each other. The result is a lot of vertical water, wave fragments and general chaos.
And water is very heavy, about 62lbs / cubic ft.. So the wave fragment that might be just 10' x 6' x 2' that slaps up against us, weighs over 7,000 lbs. It's like two SUVs running into New Morning. She gets slapped around. And gravity does some of the work as well when a wave lifts her up on one side and there is nothing to support her other side, so she tilts or lurches.
As you've probably figured out by now, we're a little tired of being slapped around and we'd like to dial back the wind a bit, let the waves drop down a bit, and have a smoother ride for the second two thirds.
